Story Highlights
- At the beginning of my crypto journey in 2020 I made significant gains during the bull run of 2020/2021.
- Currently, Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs, but many established altcoins are still far from their peaks.
- Expert predictions for Bitcoin’s future price range widely, with some estimates suggesting it could reach between $100,000 and $400,000 by 2025, and possibly $1,000,000 by 2030.
- While I have a positive outlook for crypto, I acknowledge the challenges ahead, including the need for a significant influx of capital, increasing regulation, and the finite nature of market cycles.
My crypto journey began in April/May 2020. After making my initial cautious investments in Bitcoin, I became increasingly fascinated by the topic. Naturally, I delved deeper and read more about it. Subsequent investments followed in various coins, projects, and NFTs. By the end of 2021, my portfolio was significantly in the green. Thankfully I did realize some gains and got extremely lucky on some NFTs. But no one is that lucky. I also revinvested some of the money and consider a few of those coins worthless right now.
Luck, Timing, and the Hard Truth About Realizing Crypto Profits
It’s crucial to acknowledge that much of my success came down to timing and luck rather than skill or foresight. I was fortunate to enter the market right before the last bull run. Bitcoin was still in the four-digit range and I was also able to scoop up Cardano at less than ten cents. I even minted a few semi-rare NFTs, which I managed to sell for five-digit profits. But here’s the thing—luck isn’t a strategy. And for every success story like mine, there are countless others who ended up as “exit liquidity”. In truth, the vast majority of crypto investors, likely around 90%, aren’t making consistent profits.
Realizing profits is harder than it seems. The market is volatile, and the lure of the “next big pump” is strong. It’s easy to fall into the trap of always wanting more. Crypto investing is a psychological game as much as a financial one. The promise of big gains often clouds judgment. Before you know it, you’re holding through another downturn, watching profits vanish. Knowing when to take profits and walk away is crucial. In crypto, where hype often beats fundamentals, this skill can make all the difference.
Altcoins still struggle
Currently, it looks like we might be at the beginning/middle of the next bullrun, with prices recovering since 2022. On December 12th, 2024, Bitcoin reached the 100k mark for the first time. However, many established altcoins are still way off from their peaks. For instance, Ethereum is down 25% as of December 10, 2024, Solana is down 18%, and Cardano is down a staggering 67%.
How high can Bitcoin climb?
In my opinion, it’s difficult to predict what the coming weeks and months will bring. Most experts anticipate a massive influx of capital into the crypto industry. As expected, the predictions for Bitcoin’s price vary widely. Conservative estimates suggest Bitcoin will reach between $100,000 and $150,000 over the course of 2025. Trading legend Peter Brandt revised his initial forecast at the end of February, raising it from $120,000 to a minimum of $150,000, with a potential maximum of $400,000. Crypto analyst Plan B who predicted $100,000 by December believes a price of $300,000 in 2025 is quite realistic and thinks anything between $250,000 and $1,000,000 is possible.
Cathie Wood, the CEO of the American investment firm Ark Invest, even expects Bitcoin to hit the $1,000,000 mark before 2030.
Challenging times ahead
Overall, I share the positive outlook, but I find it difficult to make predictions beyond $150,000. It was much easier for BTC to achieve a 6x increase from June 2020 to November 2021 when the market capitalization only needed to grow from $200 billion to $1.2 trillion. Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization is almost $2 trillion. A price increase to $400,000 per BTC would result in a market capitalization of nearly $8 trillion. For comparison, at the end of 2022, the value of global investments in stocks was $100 trillion. Obviously this is still twelve times higher. However, the money and investments have to come from somewhere or be freed up. The next few weeks and months will certainly not be boring.
Here’s a brief summary of what makes me feel bullish/positive and/or bearish/negative about the future of crypto:
Bullish Factors:
- Crypto Cycle/Expert Opinions: The majority of experts and analysts have a bullish outlook for the coming months.
- ETFs: The approval of Bitcoin & Etherum ETFs in the US was a significant milestone for the industry. Institutional investments have increased significantly since then. Personally, I believe that the Bitcoin price will not fall below $50,000 ever again starting in 2025. However, price fluctuations and potential price manipulations could increase significantly in the future. Institutional investors are not just in it to HODL and will need to realize profits from time to time, inevitably leading to more turbulence.
- Acceptance/Mass Adoption: Bitcoin is no longer just known to internet nerds. In addition to easier access to crypto through BTC/ETH ETFs, Generation Z (born 1996 to 2012) will increasingly engage with Web3 wallets through the multiverse or gaming/music apps. Than there is also the supposedly crypto friendly next president of the United States and Amazon shareholders pushing for Bitcoin treasury allocation.
Bearish Factors:
- The Finite Nature of Crypto Market Cycles: Before and after Bitcoin halvings, there have been massive price increases in previous cycles.
- In 2012, before the first halving: +385%, and the year after up to 5,089%
- In 2016, before the second halving: +142%, and the year after up to 284%
- In 2020, before the third halving: +17%, and the year after up to 559%
Currently, the total crypto market capitalization is almost $3.5 trillion. Common sense alone suggests that this cannot continue for the next 20 years. Correspondingly, in April 2024, Jayden Levitt of Carrot Lane published a great column titled “This Crypto Cycle is the Last Chance to Make Generational Wealth.”
- Increasing Regulation: Personally, I am not an advocate for absolute anonymity and can live very well with increasing regulation. For me, regulation primarily means more security – at least in theory. However, I do not fully understand all the overarching connections to accurately assess how increased regulation might negatively impact the crypto landscape. In the short term, regulation will likely negatively affect prices. However, if it can build more trust, I would view that as a positive in the long run.
Despite these fluctuations, my passion for crypto remains strong. I continue to learn, adapt, and look forward to what the future holds in this ever-evolving space.